San Diego September 2023 Market Update
Home prices in San Diego hit the highest levels they have ever hit, but there are some signs of them starting to slow down. So, in this video, we're going to cover exactly what that means for you if you're looking to buy or sell a home right now in San Diego. My name is Curtis Chism with the Chism team. If you're looking to buy or sell, all you've got to do is reach out to me via phone, text, or email. Let's chat about that. Before we hit the numbers about where home prices are right now, let's hit the national news. What's happening and driving home prices here in San Diego? Obviously, mortgage rates are a key driver of housing prices. Inflation has been out of control but has been calming down, but recently has been ticking up. We hit a low of inflation of three percent. Rose now to about 3.7 percent. That was kind of to be expected, but there certainly were some unexpected numbers thrown in there. Oil prices rising; looks like cars are going to start to rise again with the strikes going on. So, we'll see how that all plays out. But right now, mortgage rates are sitting right around 7.3 percent. They have been around the high sixes, low sevens for a while, rose unexpectedly quickly to 7.5, kind of freaked everyone out, didn't stop everything but certainly slowed things down, which I'll address.Now they're sitting back around 7.3 percent and things seem to be settling out again. So, obviously, that's a key driver. Median prices right now in San Diego again hit the highest level they've ever hit at 1 million and 25,000. That is a complete recovery from the market correction that we saw of about 15 percent where we were at a million dollars at a high about a year and a half ago in May and corrected 15 to 850,000, and that has completely recovered now at a million and twenty-five thousand dollars.Now that's for single-family homes. For condos, the high is actually now at six hundred and seventy-seven thousand dollars, also a new high for condos, and that was up from six hundred and forty thousand dollars and that had also fallen off also around 15 percent, a complete and total recovery. Now, there are some signs of things slowing down, but what I like to look at is the final sales to list price. So, what this number is showing us is what did that house originally list for, and then what did it ultimately sell for? It's the average of all the homes. It's been over a hundred percent. If you're over 98 in a market, that's actually considered a seller's market because not all homes sell for the list price. Many often sometimes will sell under. So, overall, we've been over a hundred percent. In fact, we had 101 percent a couple of months ago. That is starting to tail off a little bit. We're seeing that both in single-family and in the condo numbers. And historically, what I've seen is that once that number starts to dip, then give it a couple of months, and home prices do start to come down just a little bit. So, we'll see where this number plays out. Along with that, we also have inventory levels starting to rise. We're at about 4,000 homes total in the county of San Diego. That's still extremely low overall, only about 2.6 months of total inventory. I mean, if we stop putting homes on the market and sold through all our existing inventory of homes right now, it would take 2.6 months, basically two and a half months to sell through all that. A balanced market is technically considered around six months. In today's kind of new economy, I would say a balanced market is really right where we're sitting right now, about two and a half to three months. Beyond that, I would say is more of a buyer's market. So, what does all this mean if you're looking to buy or sell a home right now? Basically, what's happening is that we really are kind of in a balanced market. So, if you're trying to sell a home right now, you have to be extremely careful how you are pricing the home. If you overprice the home, which is very easy to do, the home likely will sit for a longer time on the market. Overall days on market right now is around 26 days on the market, so your home can certainly sit and then can experience price reductions in order to get the home to sell. So, the big takeaway here is to make sure that you're pricing aggressively so that you get a large pool of buyers looking at your home. If you overprice your home by 10 percent, you reduce the pool of buyers down to only 30 percent of potential buyers. If you price it right, you're looking at about 60 percent of potential buyers, even underpriced a little bit as much as 10 percent, you can have 75 percent of your buyers looking at your home. That turns into more views online, more showings, and then ultimately more offers. I typically see about one offer for every four showings. So, we want to drive those showings, drive those offers, bid the price back up, and get buyers to bid against each other and get that price right back up and get your home sold very, very quickly. Now, even with all that said, you may still need to be prepared to provide some credits to the buyers to help them maybe with their closing costs or more specifically, that a lot of people are looking at our interest rate buy down. So, be prepared potentially for that as well, and we may have to negotiate on repairs with buyers as well. If you are looking to buy a home, then we just need a really specific strategy for each home that we're looking at. Some homes are priced really well and are going to have a lot of bidders on it, and we have to be super, super aggressive about it. Homes are still selling for well over the asking price, but depending on the type of home, it might be overpriced, it may not have a lot of bidders on it, other buyers, and we can be more aggressive about it. So, that's where when you work with me, we really sit down and figure that out, target the homes that we're going after, I contact the agents, figure out what's going on, and we get after actually getting you in a home. My average offer ratio is about one and a half, meaning that for every time that I'm working with a buyer, it takes one to two offers to get an offer accepted. This is versus oftentimes people I've heard horror stories of 24 offers or more. So, when you work with me, we have a very specific strategy to get you into your home. I hope you found this market update helpful. If you're looking to buy or sell a home, please reach out to me via phone, text, or email. Looking forward to talking soon.
Read MoreAugust 2023 Housing Market Update for San Diego County
San Diego Home Prices Recovered July 2023
Real estate prices have completely recovered here in San Diego as we continue through the summer selling season, and we're getting after exactly what you need to know if you're planning on buying or selling a home here in San Diego. Hey everyone, even though home prices have now completely recovered from the 15% market drop we went through this past year here in San Diego, you're probably continuing to hear on the news that home prices are falling. But the news looks at old real estate data, and they love to sell scary headlines to get people to click and watch. But despite the doom, gloom, and misleading information out there, home prices here in San Diego actually have returned to the high water mark that we hit in April of 2022, and we're going to dive into exactly what that pricing looks like here in just a quick minute. And my name is Curtis Chism with the Chism team. If you're looking to make a move, give me a call, text, or email, and let's chat. Or if you happen to know someone that's looking to buy, pass this video onto them and have them give me a call. Now, let's take a look real quick at what is the main driver of the housing market, and that, of course, is mortgage rates. And mortgage rates shot up over the past year but have generally stabilized over the past four months. Now, this happened not only because the Fed was hiking interest rates but also because of high inflation. Mortgage rates are directly tied to inflation, and when inflation was at nine percent a year ago, mortgage rates had to catch up to that number. Now, rates have generally been sitting right around the high six percent mark for several months. Now, as inflation continues to get under control, mortgage rates should start to follow. That inflation fell again this past month to three percent and has been falling rapidly each month. Now, the FED keeps hiking interest rates, so we'll see how much they continue to fall, but they are sitting around seven percent right now. Now, buyers seem to have indicated that they're okay with the high six percent, maybe seven percent, price range for interest rates, and that's fueling higher home prices. So, housing prices shot up this past month to one million dollars from nine hundred and fifty-five thousand dollars. We hit one million dollars back in April of 2022. So, we went through a 15% market correction with prices falling to eight hundred and fifty thousand dollars, and now the market has completely recovered. Condos rose ten thousand dollars to six hundred and fifty thousand dollars, and they're just twenty thousand dollars below the condo market high in May of 2022. Inventory of homes has risen, and we have a two-month supply of homes available to sell, which is still incredibly low, sitting at 3,600 homes for a county population of over 3 million people. Now, the amount of time that homes are taking longer to sell has been getting faster and is averaging just 24 days on the market. Bidding wars on homes that are well-priced have become the norm once again. And now, if the home is overpriced, then it is taking longer to sell. The other big data point I'd like to look at is the final sales to list price percentage. This tells us how much above or below the list price that homes on average sold for. If, on average, the final sales price is 98% of the original list price, it's considered a balanced market. Anything over indicates a seller's market, and below that indicates a buyer's market. Now, here in San Diego, we're now at 101.5% of final sales to list price, showing us we've definitely swung back into a seller's market. But it's really kind of a balanced plus market, meaning it's definitely favoring sellers overall right now, but there still are homes that are favoring buyers. But these are generally homes that are either not very desirable or are very overpriced with unrealistic seller expectations. I just listed and sold a home that went for 107.5% over the list price with a true bidding war. Now, what does this mean for you if you're thinking of buying a home? Well, many people like to try the time the market just perfectly, but it's just not possible. And we went through a market correction this past year, and housing prices clearly bottomed out several months ago and are fully recovered now. Now, we need a specific strategy for each home that you're interested in buying. For some homes, you may be the only bidder on it, and for others, you may be up against several other offers. The strategy could involve going with a clean full-price offer or an over-ask offer. Or it could be asking for some credits to cover your closing costs and maybe asking for repair work to be done. And that's how I can help you navigate the buying process, which is to help you analyze each home and come up with a specific strategy needed and negotiate to help you buy your next home. So just give me a call, text, or email, and let's get started. Now, if you are planning to sell a home, we really need to take a good look at your home and come up with the right strategy to successfully market and sell your home. Just like for buyers, every home is unique, and it has its own strengths and weaknesses. And sometimes, the home needs a lot of repairs, remodeling, and upgrades prior to hitting the market, like paint, carpet, landscaping, roofing work, and other times it just needs to be decluttered and thoroughly cleaned. Now, as we head into what I would call a balanced plus market, favoring sellers, you may need to plan to do some repairs that come up on a buyer's inspections or give credits to help that homebuyer buy down the interest rate to secure the home. And that's just why it's honestly most important than ever that you give me a call so you can put together that customized plan for you to help you sell your home on the best terms that you're looking for. We'll make sure that we don't overprice the home, causing it to sit for months. Instead, we use my proven pricing strategy to generate tons of traffic online, which will turn into showings, offers, and then a bidding war that will give you the leverage that you need to get the price and terms that you want. So, if you are wanting to get an idea of what your home might sell for in today's market and what it should be priced at, just contact me today, and I'll run a no-obligation home value for you. Well, that's a complete overview of the housing market here in San Diego. Just leave me a comment or shoot me an email back, let me know what you thought, and I'll see you on the next video.
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